The prior performance of schools over the last three years will be one of the key determinants for giving GCSE pupils grades next week.

It has been said that teachers' predicted grades for pupils will not be fed into the model when the CCEA is producing results. They will instead be used to rank children.
Predicted grades will also be fed in for a quality assurance when the grades are reviewed afterwards. It is understood the school's performance last year will be the most important of the three years.

This year's results were estimated after exams were cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Pupils will get their results next week.

Education Minister Peter Weir said GCSEs would always be the most difficult. "There is no robust data from which you can make comparisons across the board," he said.

"There is a process which involves weighted past results, because the past results of a school will be some level of indication as to what the future holds. Those results are weighted so the most recent results will have the greatest level of credence." Weir denied it would see grades weighted against children from working class areas.

"I don't accept that either statistically or from a practical point of view," he said. "Having a situation where there are great opportunities for everyone as best as possible is something that I feel very passionately about, that's why we're trying to get the best possible system."

The minister said the grades would be weighted against national results.

He added: "It is a mixture of the past performances of the school and also the national averages, so that would mean that would bring that (grades) up". He also said teachers' assessment of children would count as the highest ranked children would get the highest grades in their school.

"Whoever, for instance, is number one on the list will get the best possible grade that that school in that subject is getting," he said.

He said this was the same as at A-level and AS level.

While the proportion of A* to A A-level grades rose by 2.3%, 37% of estimated grades were lowered; 5.3% were raised.